Will all Americans become overweight or obese? Obesity prevalence and health care cost projections

Abstract

We project future prevalence and BMI distribution based on 1971‐2004 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) data. Future obesity related health care costs for adults are estimated using projected prevalence, Census population projections, and published national estimates of per capita excess health care costs of obesity. Prevalence of overweight and obesity has increased steadily among all US groups, but notable differences exist among groups. Annual increase in obesity and overweight was faster in adults than children (0.77 vs 0.46–0.49 percentage point) and in women than men (0.91 vs 0.65). If the current trend continues, by 2030, 86.3% adults will be overweight or obese; and 51.1%, obese. Black women (96.9%) and Mexican American men (91.1%) would be the most affected. By 2048, all adults will become overweight or obese, while black women will reach that by 2034. In children, overweight prevalence (BMI≥95th, 30%) will double by 2030. Total health care costs attributable to obesity/overweight will double every decade to 860.7‐956.9 billion US$ by 2030, accounting for 16–18% of total US health care costs. In conclusion, we continue to move away from the Healthy People 2010 Goals. Projected increases will greatly increase public health burden and health care costs. Timely, dramatic and effective programs/policies are needed to avoid the otherwise inevitable health‐ and societal consequences.