Abstract
Marlieke de Kraker and colleagues reflect on the need for better global estimates for the burden of antimicrobial resistance.
Highlights
Current global estimates of the burden of antimicrobial resistance (AMR) are not very informative; we need detailed, reliable data to be able to improve AMR control measures, preferably based on comprehensive, population-based surveillance data from low, middle, and highincome countries
Predictions always require assumptions, but modeling future scenarios using unreliable contemporary estimates is of questionable utility
We acknowledge that there is a large clinical and public health burden associated with AMR, that this burden is likely to increase over time, and that urgent action is required [2,3]
Summary
A recent high profile report estimates that, by 2050, 10 million people will die every year due to antimicrobial resistance (AMR) unless a global response to the problem of AMR is mounted. When estimates of the burden of AMR are provided, they should be accompanied by clear acknowledgment of the associated uncertainties regarding the incidence of infections, the prevalence of resistance, and the attributable mortality. The review estimated that antimicrobial resistance (AMR) could cause 10 million deaths a year by 2050 This estimate has become a familiar refrain; it has been quoted repeatedly by lay media, experts, and public health agencies. We will scrutinize the estimations of the burden of AMR provided by the AMR Review [1] and highlight the uncertainties behind these estimates. These uncertainties need to be addressed in order to produce more reliable, detailed, and actionable results. Because the most quoted phrase is derived from the KPMG estimates [5], the KPMG model will be represented whenever we refer to the AMR Review [1] throughout the remainder of this essay
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