Abstract

A recurring challenge for resource managers and decision makers is quantifying the trade-offs associated with alternative recovery actions for threatened species. Structured decision-making approaches can help evaluate such complex problems by formalizing objectives and constraints into functions that quantify the benefits and costs associated with each action. Yet many of the scientific tools necessary to implement structured decision making require extensive literature review and often involve complex algorithms that make them inaccessible to managers. To address these issues, we integrated available information and developed a decision-support tool that managers can readily use to compare costs and benefits associated with alternative recovery actions for threatened species. Our software can be used to quantitatively estimate and compare the costs and demographic benefits of recovery actions for an iconic threatened species, woodland caribou (Rangifer tarandus caribou). While we use caribou as a case study, our approach to developing this management tool is transferable to other threatened taxa. The tool consists of a generalized matrix population model that is parametrized based on information from the published literature or ongoing experiments. Users can input population parameters (e.g., population size and survival rates) or choose from pre-set caribou subpopulations to estimate changes to populations from implementing recovery actions. The tool estimates the trade-offs associated with seven alternative recovery actions: Linear Feature Restoration, Linear Feature Deactivation, Maternal Penning, Conservation Breeding, Predator Exclosure, Wolf Reduction, and Moose Reduction. We demonstrate our software by comparing recovery actions for the East Side Athabasca River caribou subpopulation and discuss how this tool can be used under a structured decision-making framework. This case study suggests that our open-source tool can be useful to guide wildlife conservation decisions by explicitly estimating costs and benefits associated with recovery actions, which ultimately helps to bridge the gap between management and science via increased accessible application of current knowledge.

Highlights

  • Over 16,000 animal species are currently at risk of extinction around the globe due to human-related activities (International Union for Conservation of Nature [IUCN], 2020)

  • Choosing recovery actions for threatened species is a complex challenge because it involves evaluating trade-offs of multiple objectives

  • We present a tool that can be readily used under a structural decision-making framework to estimate and compare costs and benefits associated with seven alternative recovery actions, which helps to bridge the gap between management and science

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Summary

INTRODUCTION

Over 16,000 animal species are currently at risk of extinction around the globe due to human-related activities (International Union for Conservation of Nature [IUCN], 2020). All other assumptions were the same as for LFD, with the exception that we assumed a 10-year period for vegetation regrowth to become effective at reducing wolf use and/or speed (Dickie et al, 2017; Tattersall et al, 2020; see Supplementary Material for details) This means that at year 15, conventional seismic lines are considered removed, as opposed to year 5 for LFD. We have not included combinations with habitat management or multiple predator-prey management actions due to high uncertainty associated with their outcomes and mechanisms producing them (e.g., compensatory vs additive effects) Users can simulate these additional combinations by making their own assumptions on changes in parameters using the interactive sliders.

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