Wildfires on the Mongolian Plateau: Identifying Drivers and Spatial Distributions to Predict Wildfire Probability

Li Li,Rihan Rihan,Guo Guo,Deng Deng,Zhang Zhang,Ying Ying,Zhao Zhao

doi:10.3390/rs11202361

Abstract

With climate change, significant fluctuations in wildfires have been observed on the Mongolian Plateau. The ability to predict the distribution of wildfires in the context of climate change plays a critical role in wildfire management and ecosystem maintenance. In this paper, Ripley’s K function and a Random Forest (RF) model were applied to analyse the spatial patterns and main influencing factors affecting the occurrence of wildfire on the Mongolian Plateau. The results showed that the wildfires were mainly clustered in space due to the combination of influencing factors. The distance scale is less than 1/2 of the length of the Mongolian Plateau; that is, it does not experience boundary effects in the study area and it meets the requirements of Ripley’s K function. Among the driving factors, the fraction of vegetation coverage (FVC), land use degree (La), elevation, precipitation (pre), wet day frequency (wet), and maximum temperature (tmx) had the greatest influences, while the aspect had the lowest influence. The likelihood of fire was mainly concentrated in the northern, eastern, and southern parts of the Mongolian Plateau and in the border area between the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region (Inner Mongolia) and Mongolian People’s Republic (Mongolia), and wildfires did not occur or occurred less frequently in the hinterland area. The fitting results of the RF model showed a prediction accuracy exceeding 90%, which indicates that the model has a high ability to predict wildfire occurrences on the Mongolian Plateau. This study can provide a reference for predictions and decision-making related to wildfires on the Mongolian Plateau.

Highlights

Wildfires are a type of natural hazard that is affected by many environmental factors and the interactions between those factors [1]
The Mongolian Plateau is located in the central part of Eurasia, and it includes all of Mongolia, southern Siberia in Russia and northern China [15]
FbryotmhotsheeidnisJutannec,eSoefpategmgrbeegraatinodn,Othcetoabgegrr,eagnadtitohneisnmteanlsleitsyt iins iMn aAypirsilt.he largest, followed by those in June, September and October, and the smallest is in April

Summary

Introduction

Wildfires are a type of natural hazard that is affected by many environmental factors and the interactions between those factors [1]. Wildfires play a macro-control role in the self-renewal and succession of ecosystems over large scale spatial and temporal ranges. The fire occurrence cycle affects changes in the geochemical cycle and the speed and stage of community succession [2]. The fire frequency and the duration of disturbances are increasing [5]. These changes affect the material cycles, energy flows, and information transmission of ecosystems. The study of the spatial distribution patterns and influencing factors of wildfires is helpful for revealing the natural causes of fire occurrences and their impacts on various ecological processes

Methods

Results

Conclusion