Wildfire risk map of Apulia Region (Italy)

Abstract

Forest and interface fires change the dynamics of land cover because of the combination of various environmental and socio-economic factors that make Mediterranean regions particularly vulnerable to fire. They represent one of the main causes of environmental degradation and have an important negative impact on the landscape, strongly influence ecological processes and compromise ecosystems. Fires are a problem that, while varying in severity and frequency, affects all European countries. However, the Mediterranean countries tend to be the most affected, in Italy for example, the issue of fires is an important issue and addresses the problem through laws, policies and fire prevention measures. The Italian legislation reiterates the obligation for each municipal administration to adopt a simple and fast tool that allows the safety of the population in the event of an interface or forest fires that threaten settlements, sensitive places or local infrastructures. The estimation of fire danger is very important for quantifying the impact on the territory and plays an important role in mitigation framework programmes, representing a strategic support for policy makers for planning fire prevention strategies and policies and for monitoring fire areas. The National Manual for the Processing of Civil Protection Plans establishes the guidelines for a methodological approach with the aim of suggesting the minimum requirements to be met for the drafting of risk maps on the Italian territory. The Puglia Region is among the Italian regions particularly affected by the phenomenon of fires, the civil protection in 2019 identified around 600 fires. Fire danger estimation is very important for quantifying the impact on land and plays an important role in mitigation framework programs, representing a strategic support for policy makers in planning fire prevention strategies and policies and monitoring fire-affected areas. For this reason, the Apulia Region and the other regions of central and southern Italy have expressed the need to create a permanent Technical Table of Forest Fire Prevention Actions (AIB) in order to design strategies shared with the different stakeholders to improve the AIB system. The AIB Plan is produced using spatial and satellite analysis models and techniques appropriate for the interpretation of forecasting, monitoring, and supervising systems that can be used to improve forecasting, prevention, and active management of wildfires. Through the Plan for Forecasting, Preventing and Actively Fighting Forest Fires, the Apulia Region supports municipal planning activities in the field of forest fire risk by providing municipal-scale risk zoning expressed in terms of an overall risk index calculated on a municipal basis. This paper presents an experimental methodology carried out within the framework of the research agreement with the Apulia Civil Protection Department to update the fire risk classification at the municipal level calculated by formulating, in the form of weighted and normalized indices, risk factors such as forest cover, potential risk, actual risk, road infrastructure density, land cover, historical fire occurrence and climate variability. All indices were processed in a GIS environment and validated with the tools currently in use by the Apulia Region Civil Protection Department.