Abstract

Wildfire has been recognized as one of the most ubiquitous disturbance agents to impact on natural environments. In this study, our main objective was to propose a modeling approach to investigate the potential impact of wildfire on biodiversity. The method is illustrated with an application example in New Caledonia where conservation and sustainable biodiversity management represent an important challenge. Firstly, a biodiversity loss index, including the diversity and the vulnerability indexes, was calculated for every vegetation unit in New Caledonia and mapped according to its distribution over the New Caledonian mainland. Then, based on spatially explicit fire behavior simulations (using the FLAMMAP software) and fire ignition probabilities, two original fire risk assessment approaches were proposed: a one-off event model and a multi-event burn probability model. The spatial distribution of fire risk across New Caledonia was similar for both indices with very small localized spots having high risk. The patterns relating to highest risk are all located around the remaining sclerophyll forest fragments and are representing 0.012% of the mainland surface. A small part of maquis and areas adjacent to dense humid forest on ultramafic substrates should also be monitored. Vegetation interfaces between secondary and primary units displayed high risk and should represent priority zones for fire effects mitigation. Low fire ignition probability in anthropogenic-free areas decreases drastically the risk. A one-off event associated risk allowed localizing of the most likely ignition areas with potential for extensive damage. Emergency actions could aim limiting specific fire spread known to have high impact or consist of on targeting high risk areas to limit one-off fire ignitions. Spatially explicit information on burning probability is necessary for setting strategic fire and fuel management planning. Both risk indices provide clues to preserve New Caledonia hot spot of biodiversity facing wildfires.

Highlights

  • Wildfire is one of the most ubiquitous terrestrial disturbance (Bowman et al 2009) and widely impacts natural environments (Hochberg et al 1994; Kass et al 2011)

  • Ecology and Evolution published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd

  • Diversity and vulnerability indices were calculated for each vegetation unit (Table 1) and attributed to each cell according to its composition in vegetation units

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Summary

Introduction

Wildfire is one of the most ubiquitous terrestrial disturbance (Bowman et al 2009) and widely impacts natural environments (Hochberg et al 1994; Kass et al 2011). These impacts occur on different spatial scales, modify landscape structures (Hochberg et al 1994), increase habitat fragmentation (Cochrane 2001), and change the species composition of ecosystems (Trabaud 1994; DıazDelgado et al 2004).

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