Wildfire hazard and Risk modelling in the Northern regions of Ghana using GIS-based Multi-Criteria Decision Making Analysis

Moses Asori

doi:10.7176/jees/10-11-02

Abstract

There has been tremendous adverse impact of fire outbreaks across the world over the last two decades. The human cost has been devastating and economic losses have exceeded an annual average of US$2500 million. Regardless of its importance in plant community regeneration, wildfires have been tremendously devastative to human societies and Earth’s ecosystems. To adequately manage wildfires and reduce their adverse effects, estimating the probability of occurrence of wildfires and critically assessing the spatially variable environmental conditions that affect the propagation and impact of these fires is imperative. This study integrates the broader biophysical and environmental variables with anthropogenic factors to model and predict spatial variation in hazard, vulnerability and risk of wildfires in the Savannah, Northeast and Northern regions of Ghana. These areas are characterised by endemic poverty and agrarian activity, which is the major source of livelihood for about 71% of the population. Disasters such as wildfires are therefore detrimental, severely undermining the natural capital relied on for livelihoods and further aggravating the high poverty rates in these regions. Against this backdrop, a GIS-based Multi Criteria Decision Making Analysis method (GIS-MCDA) – the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) was used to map wildfire hazard and risk within these regions to aid response and mitigation. A wildfire risk map was then produced by developing and integrating hazard and vulnerability models. Results indicate that about 71.7% (48035 ) of the study area is highly exposed to wildfire hazard and about 13% of the study region is likely to experience the greatest risk when wildfires occur, although this is concentrated around urban settlements. It is recommended that future studies integrate intersectional social and economic characteristics to provide a more robust definition of vulnerable and at-risk communities and cultural infrastructure. Keywords: Wildfires, Vulnerability, Risk, GIS multi-criteria decision making, Northern Ghana DOI: 10.7176/JEES/10-11-02 Publication date: November 30 th 2020

Highlights

Forest and wildfires are considered a crucial aspect of land management in many regions and are considered relevant to the regeneration of other plant species, and agricultural activity in many communities
About 17,000 deaths were attributed to fire outbreaks in Europe in 2009 alone, property damage from fire events in the USA in 2016 exceeded $70 billion and since the turn of the 21st century, more than 80,000 persons have been affected by wildfires in Africa (Thomas et al, 2017; Taffesse, 2020)
In Ghana, more than $20 million of annual GDP had been lost to wildfires by 2006 (Appiah et al, 2010) and between 2007 and 2013, about 3,000 wildfire events were recorded by the Ghana National Fire Service

Summary

Introduction

Forest and wildfires are considered a crucial aspect of land management in many regions and are considered relevant to the regeneration of other plant species, and agricultural activity in many communities. In Ghana, the EM-DAT (Emergency Events Database) records only one incidence of wildfires as far back as 1985, with more than 1500 persons affected and four dead (EM-DAT, 2020). This might give an impression that forest fires are not a frequent or severe hazard in Ghana. The inclusion criteria for EM-DAT requires that at least one of three requirements need to be met: at least 10 deaths need to be recorded, more than 100 persons need to be affected or the affected country must declare a state of emergency or appeal for international assistance. Northern Ghana which comprises the Savannah, Northeast and Northern regions ( referred to as Greater North) consistently experiences wildfires, which have shown an increasing trend between 2000 and 2013 (Addai et al, 2016)

Methods

Results

Conclusion