Abstract
Abstract. During the last 20 years extreme wildfires have challenged firefighting capabilities. Often, the prediction of the extreme behaviour is essential for the safety of citizens and firefighters. Currently, there are several fire danger indices routinely used by firefighting services, but they are not suited to forecast extreme-wildfire behaviour at the global scale. This article proposes a new fire danger index, the extreme-fire behaviour index (EFBI), based on the analysis of the vertical profiles of the atmosphere above wildfires as an addition to the use of traditional fire danger indices. The EFBI evaluates the ease of interaction between wildfires and the atmosphere that could lead to deep moist convection and erratic and extreme wildfires. Results of this research through the analysis of some of the critical fires in the last years show that the EFBI can potentially be used to provide valuable information to identify convection-driven fires and to enhance fire danger rating schemes worldwide.
Highlights
Fires have naturally occurred in most world biomes, shaping ecosystems and landscapes, but are intrinsically linked to human activities
The main objective of our work is to evaluate the proposed fire danger index, which considers deep moist convection, as this is not usually taken into account in most traditional fire danger rating indices applied at the global scale
We assume that the extreme-fire behaviour index (EFBI) can be an indicator of ease of deep moist convection, but we do not take into account all complex factors involved in fire behaviour and atmosphere interactions (Sullivan, 2017)
Summary
Fires have naturally occurred in most world biomes, shaping ecosystems and landscapes, but are intrinsically linked to human activities. Over 90 % of the fires that occur in the world are caused by humans, deliberately or accidentally (Balch et al, 2017; Short, 2017; San-Miguel-Ayanz et al, 2012). Fires that are purposely or accidentally started affect human assets and are controlled and extinguished as fast as possible. In the context of this paper we use the term wildfires, referring to those fires that escape beyond human control and cause damage to human lives and property. In Europe, this intermingling of human dwellings and natural areas is referred to as the wildland–urban interface (WUI) and corresponds to the area where most fires and burnt areas occur
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