Abstract
Grassland fire is a cause of major disturbance to ecosystems and economies throughout the world. This paper investigated to identify risk zone of wildfire distributions on the Eastern Steppe of Mongolia. The study selected variables for wildfire risk assessment using a combination of data collection, including Social Economic, Climate, Geographic Information Systems, Remotely sensed imagery, and statistical yearbook information. Moreover, an evaluation of the result is used field validation data and assessment. The data evaluation resulted divided by main three group factors Environmental, Social Economic factor, Climate factor and Fire information factor into eleven input variables, which were classified into five categories by risk levels important criteria and ranks. All of the explanatory variables were integrated into spatial a model and used to estimate the wildfire risk index. Within the index, five categories were created, based on spatial statistics, to adequately assess respective fire risk: very high risk, high risk, moderate risk, low and very low. Approximately more than half, 68 percent of the study area was predicted accuracy to good within the very high, high risk and moderate risk zones. The percentages of actual fires in each fire risk zone were as follows: very high risk, 42 percent; high risk, 26 percent; moderate risk, 13 percent; low risk, 8 percent; and very low risk, 11 percent. The main overall accuracy to correct prediction from the model was 62 percent. The model and results could be support in spatial decision making support system processes and in preventative wildfire management strategies. Also it could be help to improve ecological and biodiversity conservation management.
Highlights
Fires usually occur in dry ecosystems, typically, steppe and grassland, when uncontrolled wildfires outbreak due to physical or natural events and human actions
In Mongolia, steppe fire is considered as one of the natural disasters which frequently occurs in every dry seasons, spring and fall, of year and during the last several years, the fire process has been increasing caused by accumulation of the fire impact to the environment and natural resources
The objectives of this study are to monitor wildfire in the Eastern Steppe of Mongolia using moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) data, and to identify potential environmental, topological, and sociological factors of the fire. These factors contribute to the outbreak of regional wildfire events, and factors were used to model regional wildfire potential through spatial Multi criteria analysis (SMCA) using a method of weighted overlay combination
Summary
Fires usually occur in dry ecosystems, typically, steppe and grassland, when uncontrolled wildfires outbreak due to physical or natural events and human actions. The objectives of this study are to monitor wildfire in the Eastern Steppe of Mongolia using moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) data, and to identify potential environmental, topological, and sociological factors of the fire. These factors contribute to the outbreak of regional wildfire events, and factors were used to model regional wildfire potential through spatial Multi criteria analysis (SMCA) using a method of weighted overlay combination. The specific objectives are that to identify suitability and non-suitability area of the fire in the study area and to compare the output wildfire risk map with ground truth information related to burned forest and steppe for validation
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