Abstract
On August 8, 2010 in the northwestern Chinese province of Gansu, rainstorm-triggered debris flow devastated the small county of Zhouqu. A modeling study, using a new multiple-phase scalable and extensible geo-fluid model, suggests that the cause is the result of an intersection of several events. These were a heavy rainstorm, not necessarily the result of global warming, which triggered the landslide and followed a drought that created surface cracks and crevasses; the geology of the region, notably the loess covering heavily weathered surface rock; and the bedrock damage, which deepened the surface crevasses, inflicted by the 7.9 magnitude Wenchuan earthquake of May 12, 2008. Deforestation and topsoil erosion also contribute. The modeling results underscore the urgency for a high priority program of re-vegetation of Zhouqu county, without which the region will remain exposed to future disastrous, “progressive bulking” type landslides.
Highlights
Landslides occur irregularly and future research is concerned with developing more accurate predictions about their timing, location and size, and in developing procedures that convey risk and warnings to the public to mitigate loss of life and damage to infrastructure and ecosystems [van Asch et al, 2007; Casadei, Dietrich & Miller, 2003]
The question is if these events are a bellwether of an intensified water cycle as a consequence of climate warming [blogs.nature. com/news/thegreatbeyond/2010/08/ mudychinafacingmorelandsl.html]? Or does the cause lie elsewhere?
The Zhouqu landslides were preceded by an extreme precipitation event which occurred around midnight of August 7, 2010 (Fig. 1)
Summary
Landslides occur irregularly and future research is concerned with developing more accurate predictions about their timing (when), location (where) and size (how big they will be), and in developing procedures that convey risk and warnings to the public to mitigate loss of life and damage to infrastructure and ecosystems [van Asch et al, 2007; Casadei, Dietrich & Miller, 2003]. The Zhouqu landslides were preceded by an extreme precipitation event which occurred around midnight of August 7, 2010 (Fig. 1). Both the precipitation intensity of [77,3] mm/hr near 104,42E, 33,78N, and total rainfall amount of [96,3] mm in 24 hours are the highest recorded for the period since the May 2008 Wenchuan magnitude [7,9] earthquake. 187 of Bolt, Horn, Macdonald & Scott, 1975] This event is unique in its unprecedented magnitude, involving ~ 2,05×106 m3 of sliding material. Because the landslide produced significant loss of life and great economic cost, it has generated intense discussion about the possible cause of the slide: 1. A number of factors other than extreme precipitation have been suggested as responsible for magnifying the Zhouqu landslide to its unexpected great size [Ma & Qi, 1997; Yu, Yang & Su, 2010]
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