Why They Escape: Mining Prioritized Fuzzy Decision Rule in Crowd Evacuation

Abstract

For safety planning in crowd evacuation, it is important to predict the evacuation decisions made by different individuals and understand the reasons behind these decisions. To this end, this paper proposes an automated approach that can learn prioritized fuzzy decision rules from crowd data to predict and understand the evacuation decisions of a real human. A coevolutionary fuzzy rule miner based on genetic fuzzy-system is designed to select necessary decision features from available ones and learn both rule structure and associated rule parameters from training data. The learned fuzzy rule contains multiple sub-rules, each of which can represent evacuation strategies of different individuals in a given scenario and the features in the fuzzy condition of the sub-rule are organized and evaluated in a sequential order to reflect the priorities of different features. Based on training and testing on four evacuations scenarios of two real-world datasets, it is shown that our proposed approach can learn decision rules that are competitive to the existing evacuation decision models in terms of prediction accuracy. More importantly, it is also demonstrated that our learned rules complying with the proposed prioritized fuzzy rule representation can facilitate the interpretation of evacuation behaviors, such as “herding under zero visibility of exit” and “diminished importance on the distance to exit”, which are aligned to the field observations from real crowd evacuation.