Abstract
The Equity (return) Premium is shown to emerge fully, specifically and episodically from just three transient factors: EPS growth above long term GDP/capita growth; after tax long bond yield below GDP/capita growth, and change in P/E (valuation) - without a risk premium. The earnings/price (E/P) ratio is shown to lack an embedded premium and appears anchored to GDP per capita growth. An aggregate stock market after-tax return model is proposed that balances return with GDP growth; which existing models do not. Long term investors (IRA, 401k, endowments, buy and hold strategies and pension plans) have no historical negative return risk over their investment-divestment horizon, enjoy the lowest effective tax rate, are the largest equity holder block with common economic attributes, and may therefore determine valuation by being the highest sustainable bidders.
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