Why Peace Fails: The causes and prevention of civil war recurrence

Abstract

The aim of this book is to identify causal patterns which explain the recurrence of armed conflict after a civil war has come to an end. The importance of the work is irrefutable, as the latest coup in the Central African Republic and military intervention in Mali underline; this volume discusses earlier wars in both countries. Call finds that political exclusion is the key factor in explaining the recurrence of conflict. Using a multi-method approach, Call starts (after an introductory chapter) by using regression analysis to discern the variables thought to be significant in explaining worldwide war recurrence between 1946 and 2007. Unlike current policy thinking based on the work of scholars like Collier et al. (2003), the author finds that economic factors are not a predictor of war recurrence. Using Liberia as an illustrative case for considering the diverse arguments for civil war recurrence (Chapter 3), he pinpoints the role of political exclusion. The exclusionary behaviour of Charles Taylor played a primary role in causing the renewed outbreak of violence, the author asserts, more so than regional dynamics, international involvement, and the widely discussed theory of ‘greed’ – or economic opportunities (pp. 78–88). Call tests this hypothesis on fifteen cases of civil war recurrence, or ‘mini case-studies’, in the following chapters. He distinguishes between precipitating exclusionary behaviour (in nine cases) and chronic exclusionary behaviour (in two cases), as well as discussing four cases where his hypothesis on political exclusion does not work. In thirteen cases, post-war states engaged in exclusionary behaviour and in almost all of these cases – eleven, or 73 per cent – exclusion is the most important causal factor to explain war recurrence. Call then considers 27 cases of civil wars that did not recur, finding an important historical dimension: non-recurrence despite exclusionary behaviour only occurred prior to 1989. Call discusses the changing normative framework after the Cold War that put more emphasis on negotiations, after which ‘exclusion is no longer a viable path to negative peace’ (p. 201).