Abstract
The prediction skill of the Climate Forecast System, version 2 (CFSv2), for the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is evaluated in three winter months (December, January, and February). The results show that the CFSv2 model can skillfully predict the December NAO one month in advance. There are two main contributors to NAO predictability in December. One is the predictability of the relationship between the North Atlantic sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) tripole and the NAO and the other is the second empirical orthogonal function (EOF) mode of the geopotential height at 50 hPa (Z50-EOF2). The relationship between the NAO and SSTA tripole index in December is the most significant in the three winter months. The significant monthly differences of surface heat fluxes in December over the whole North Atlantic are favorable for promoting the interaction between the NAO and North Atlantic SSTAs, in addition to improving the predictability of the December NAO. When the NAO is in a positive phase, easterly anomalies are located at the low and high latitudes and westerly anomalies prevail in the mid-latitudes of the troposphere. The correlation between the December Z50-EOF2 and zonal-mean zonal wind anomalies shows a similar spatial structure to that for the NAO. The possible reason why the CFSv2 model can predict the December NAO one month ahead is that it can reasonably reproduce the relationship between the December NAO and both the North Atlantic SST and stratospheric circulation.
Highlights
The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is the leading pattern of atmospheric variability in theNorth Atlantic affecting the winter climate over the Northern Hemisphere [1,2,3,4]
Bay in the following and the NAO and Z50-EOF2 weaken in January and February, with TCCs of 0.18 and 0.24, with statistical
The relationships between the NAO and Z50-EOF2 weaken in January and February, with TCCs of of significance below the 90% confidence level
Summary
The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is the leading pattern of atmospheric variability in the. Atmosphere 2019, 10, 477 the North Atlantic SSTA tripole is primarily the ocean’s response to the NAO forcing [15]. Saito et al [26] found that the predictive skill of the NAO increases from late winter to early spring in relation to the high predictability of the zonal mean geopotential height in the stratosphere. The North Atlantic SSTA tripole and atmospheric circulation in the stratosphere as possible sources of the predictability of the monthly NAO are explored.
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