Abstract
Returns to managed futures funds and Commodity Trading Advisors (CTAs) have decreased dramatically. Funds overwhelmingly use technical analysis. This research determines if structural change in futures price movements could explain the reduced fund returns. Bootstrap tests are used to test significance of a change in statistics related to daily returns, close-to-open changes, breakaway gaps, and serial correlation. Several statistics have changed across a broad range of commodities. Lower price volatility is the most likely explanation of the lower returns from technical analysis. The structural changes likely caused the decreased returns rather than increased technical trading causing the structural changes.
Sign-in/Register to access full text options 
Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a call
