Why Has the Business Cycle in China Become More Stable in the Twenty‐first Century?

Abstract

本文的目的在于回答两个问题：第一，21世纪中国经济周期平稳化的原因何在？ 第二，21世纪中国经济波动的来源何在？利用统计分析和构造的多方程结构宏观经济 模型，我们发现第一个问题的答案几乎完全在于国内因素，包括国内需求冲击的稳定 和信贷市场中的自稳定机制；就第二个问题而言，21世纪中国经济波动的最大来源在 于国外需求冲击和国内需求冲击——前者对GDP的波动影响较大，而后者则更多地影 响CPI。本文的另一个发现是，传统的盯住货币供应量的货币政策对稳定GDP和CPI几 乎没有效果。本文的政策建议之一是，在全球危机的背景下，稳定总需求的国内经济 刺激政策依然很重要。本文的另一个建议是，为了摆脱全球化的负面影响，我们需要 更加依靠城市化而非工业化，并在国内调整各个区域的经济角色。 关键词: 经济周期 全球化 稳定 The purpose of this paper is to answer two questions: first, what are the causes of the stability of the Chinese business cycle in the twenty‐first century? Second, what are the sources of volatility for the Chinese economy in the twenty‐first century? Using statistical analysis and constructing a multi‐equation structural macro‐economic model, we find the answer to the first question depends almost totally on domestic factors, including the stability of domestic demand shock and the automatic stabilization mechanism existing in the credit market. As to the second question, the greatest sources of volatility are foreign and domestic demand shocks, with the former having a greater effect on the volatility of GDP while the latter has a greater effect on the CPI. Another finding is that traditional monetary policy targeting money supply has little effect on the stability of GDP and CPI. One policy suggestion is that a domestic stimulus policy to stabilize aggregate demand is still vital against the background of the global crisis; another is that to get rid of negative impact of globalization upon our economy, we need to rely more on urbanization rather than industrialization and need to re‐adjust the economic roles of different regions within China.