Why has the Brazilian economy stagnated in the 2010s? A Minskyan analysis of the behavior of non-financial companies in a financialized economy.

Abstract

The Brazilian economy entered a deep recession in 2015–2016 and since then has shown a sluggish recovery. In this paper, we offer an interpretation for the slow growth based on Minsky’s financial instability hypothesis and recent literature on financialization and growth. We analyze the balance sheet of large non-financial companies over the period 2012–2019, a period that comprises the positive investment cycle—initiated during the commodities boom which lasted from the second half of the 2000s until 2014—the 2015–2016 recession, and the period preceding the shock of the COVID-19 pandemic. Based on Minsky’s taxonomy of financial profiles, we map a proxy for financial instability at the firm level based on Davis et al. (2019). We also propose an aggregate financial stability index. We conclude that after the 2015–2016 recession, companies have been restructuring their debt profile and adopting a defensive behavior, increasing their liquidity preference. Our analysis supports the interpretation that, even with the sharp fall in domestic real interest rates, the degree of confidence on expectations to recover investment in productive assets is low. This corroborates with the thesis that agents’ decisions do not respond only to supply stimulus, but are guided by expectations of future returns, which fundamentally depend on the performance of aggregate demand. Since 2015, Brazilian economic policy has been driven by fiscal consolidation, which has proven ineffective in increasing economic growth.