Why do People Trust Media Pre-Election Polls? Evidence from the Israeli 1996 Elections

Abstract

Although much research has been dedicated to the potential impact of media publication of poll results on various aspects of democratic life (e.g. Beniger 1976, Broh 1983, Mutz 1995), there is surprisingly little research on how people react to polls. Virtually all polls published in the media in the month prior to the May 29, 1996, election in Israel predicted that Labor Party candidate Shimon Peres would overcome Likud candidate Benjamin Netanyahu in the prime‐ministerial race. However, despite the unanimous predictions, and despite the fact that the media underscored Peres' advantage in the polls in their campaign coverage, most Israelis did not believe the polls then. Why do people trust, or mistrust, pre‐election polls? This is the question I address in this study.