Why do people stay put in environmentally stressful regions? Cognitive bias and heuristics in migration decision-making

Abstract

Environmentally induced migration and mobility receives high attention in politics, media, and academia, even though non-migration is of much greater scale and probably the less understood phenomenon. The decision to leave or to stay put in an environmentally stressful region is a decision taken in the context of personal needs and aspirations, and uncertain survival and livelihood opportunities elsewhere. Information and expectations about migratory options and challenges are always incomplete, and whether migration, or rather non-migration, turns out as the personally more beneficial option depends on circumstances that are ex ante unknown and ex post not fully under control of the potential out-migrant. We argue that—despite exposure to severe environmental stress in a region—voluntary non-migration can be a viable outcome of a conscious but sometimes biased cognitive process. By highlighting the role of some relevant search and decision heuristics, we discuss why people around the globe decide to stay put in an environmentally stressful home region—despite favorable migratory options and sufficient resources for realizing opportunities elsewhere.