Abstract
Large-scale agricultural investments (LAIs) transform land use systems worldwide. There is, however, limited understanding about how the common global drivers of land use change induce different forms of agricultural investment and produce different impacts on the ground. This article provides a cross-country comparative analysis of how differences in business models, land use changes, and governance systems explain differences in socio-economic, food security, and environmental impacts of LAIs in Kenya, Madagascar, and Mozambique. It brings together results on these aspects generated in the AFGROLAND project that collected data in a multi-method approach via household surveys, business model surveys, semi-structured household interviews, life-cycle assessments of farm production, analysis of remote-sensing data, key informant interviews, and document analysis. For the present project synthesis, we combined a collaborative expert workshop with a comparative analysis of 16 LAIs. The results show that the LAIs follow four distinctive impact patterns, ranging from widespread adverse impacts to moderate impacts. Results demonstrate how the following conditions influence how the global drivers of land use change translate into different LAIs and different impacts on the ground: labor intensity, prior land use, utilization of land, farm size, type of production, experience in local agriculture, land tenure security, accountability of state and local elites, the mobilization capacity of civil society, expansion of resource frontiers, agricultural intensification, and indirect land use change. The results indicate that commercial agriculture can be a component in sustainable development strategies under certain conditions, but that these strategies will fail without substantial, sustained increases in the economic viability and inclusiveness of smallholder agriculture, land tenure security, agro-ecological land management, and support for broader patterns of endogenous agrarian transformation.
Highlights
Large-scale investments in agriculture (LAIs) are transforming land use and food systems in their targeted regions worldwide
The present study demonstrates how differences in business models, governance systems, and land use changes mediate the influence of global drivers of change in land use and agro-food systems, influencing how Large-scale agricultural investments (LAIs) impact development in Kenya, Madagascar, and Mozambique
We find that the 16 LAIs in our sample follow four distinct impact patterns: conflicted neighborhood, moderate neighborhood, land loss to main employer, and widespread hostility
Summary
Large-scale investments in agriculture (LAIs) are transforming land use and food systems in their targeted regions worldwide. The long-term global drivers of these social-ecological transformations persist: global population growth, changing diets and recurrent national food shortages (Zoomers 2010, Nolte et al 2016), energy system transitions (Scheidel and Sorman 2012, Antonelli et al 2015), climate change responses (Davis et al 2015), private capital in search of investment opportunities (Ceddia 2019), national development strategies (Cotula 2012), and geopolitics (Oliveira 2016) They have given rise to a rush of largescale agricultural investments (LAIs) across Africa, Asia, Latin America, and Eastern Europe over the last decade (Anseeuw et al 2012, Nolte et al 2016), leading to major concerns for global sustainable development (Deininger and Byerlee 2012, Dell’Angelo et al 2017a). The socioeconomic, food security, and environmental impacts of LAIs differ markedly from one setting to another (Hall et al 2015a)
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