Abstract
In this article, we analyse the factors that determine the fatality rates across 29 economies spread across both the developing and developed world. Recent emerging literature and expert opinions in popular media have indicated various factors that may explain cross-country difference in fatality rates. These factors range from access to public health infrastructure, BCG vaccination policies, demographic structure, restrictive policy interventions and the weather. In addition, articles are examining different kinds of fatality rates that can be explained. Progressing beyond fragmented databases and anecdotal evidence, we have developed a database for such factors, have explored various econometric models to test the explanatory power of these factors in explaining several kinds of fatality rates. Based on available data, our study reveals that factors such as public health system, population age structure, poverty level and BCG vaccination are powerful contributory factors in determining fatality rates. Interactions between factors such as poverty level and BCG vaccination provide interesting insights into the complex interplay of factors. Our analysis suggests that poor citizens’ access to the public healthcare system are worse in many countries irrespective of whether they are developed or developing countries.
Highlights
It is believed that the determinants of fatality rates1 due to coronavirus disease (COVID-19) across countries may be influenced by factors such as poor health infrastructure and access to public health prevailed in a country, Bacille Calmette–Guérin vaccine (BCG) vaccination (The Economics Times, 2020) and demographic factors
case fatality rates (CFRs) on the 45th day since the first reported case/s have been calculated based on the data put forth on the platform by Our World in Data.13. This current study based on the 29 economies across the world employs multivariate cross-sectional regression analysis to find whether climatic conditions, BCG vaccination, poverty level, population age structure, number of hospital beds, health expenditure and government interventions have some explanatory power over the CFRs, or deaths to population ratio or the fatality rate as on the 45th day since the commencement of the first case/s
Data reveal that countries have been quite varied in all possible dimensions that relate to the COVID-19 crisis, starting from the timeline of reporting the first case, the rate of spread, death rates due to COVID19, fatality rates, efficiency in mitigating fatality and so on
Summary
It is believed that the determinants of fatality rates1 due to coronavirus disease (COVID-19) across countries may be influenced by factors such as poor health infrastructure and access to public health prevailed in a country, BCG vaccination (The Economics Times, 2020) and demographic factors. Keywords COVID-19, China, Europe, fatality rate, BCG vaccination policy, aged population, South Korea, Germany, USA, public health
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