Abstract
After a dramatic slowdown of the 1970s, productivity growth in UK manufacturing in the 1980s returned to something like its pre-slowdown trend. This paper constructs a quarterly dynamic model of TFP growth in UK manufacturing using cointegration techniques, correcting for a variety of measurement biases. The elasticity of output with respect to R&D capital is estimated at between 0.2 and 0.3, with human capital also playing a positive and significant role. The paper also determines how much of the UK productivity slowdown in the 1970s was due to the mis-measurement of output and the business cycle and how much was due to structural changes. The answer appears to be about half and half.
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