Why could the coffee crop endure climate change and global warming to a greater extent than previously estimated?

Fábio M Damatta,José C Ramalho,Eric Rahn,Raquel Ghini,Peter Läderach

doi:10.1007/s10584-018-2346-4

Abstract

Coffee, one of the most heavily globally traded agricultural commodities, has been categorized as a highly sensitive plant species to progressive climatic change. Here, we summarize recent insights on the coffee plant’s physiological performance at elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration [CO2]. We specifically (i) provide new data of crop yields obtained under free-air CO2 enrichment conditions, (ii) discuss predictions on the future of the coffee crop as based on rising temperature and (iii) emphasize the role of [CO2] as a key player for mitigating harmful effects of supra-optimal temperatures on coffee physiology and bean quality. We conclude that the effects of global warming on the climatic suitability of coffee may be lower than previously assumed. We highlight perspectives and priorities for further research to improve our understanding on how the coffee plant will respond to present and progressive climate change.

Highlights

The current rise in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration ([CO2]) is one of the major drivers of global warming and climatic change
Decreases in crop yields (Gay et al 2006; Craparo et al 2015), beverage coffee quality (Läderach et al 2017), negative impacts on wild populations of C. arabica (Davis et al 2012; Moat et al 2017), greater pest incidence (Avelino et al 2015; Magrach and Ghazoul 2015), and increased agricultural, social, and economic vulnerabilities (Baca et al 2014) have been foreseen. These pessimistic findings have not considered the potential positive effects of elevated [CO2] on coffee photosynthesis (Ramalho et al 2013; Ghini et al 2015; DaMatta et al 2016) and leaf retention (Rakočević and Matsunaga 2018) or the role of CO2 as a key player in coffee heat tolerance (Martins et al 2016; Rodrigues et al 2016) probably because only very recently this information has become available for the coffee crop
Insights in coffee behavior at elevated [CO2] has been gained from growth chamber studies by cultivating plants in large pots in Portugal without restrictions to root growth, as well as in field through free-air concentration enrichment (FACE) trials in rain-fed conditions in Brazil (C. arabica). These studies have produced newly unequivocal evidence that elevated CO2 stimulates photosynthesis and crop yield, and we argue that coffee is a highly suitable crop under elevated [CO2] more than we could expect as compared with the majority of other C3 crop species

Summary

Introduction

The current rise in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration ([CO2]) is one of the major drivers of global warming and climatic change. Decreases in crop yields (Gay et al 2006; Craparo et al 2015), beverage coffee quality (Läderach et al 2017), negative impacts on wild populations of C. arabica (Davis et al 2012; Moat et al 2017), greater pest incidence (Avelino et al 2015; Magrach and Ghazoul 2015), and increased agricultural, social, and economic vulnerabilities (Baca et al 2014) have been foreseen These pessimistic findings have not considered the potential positive effects of elevated [CO2] on coffee photosynthesis (Ramalho et al 2013; Ghini et al 2015; DaMatta et al 2016) and leaf retention (Rakočević and Matsunaga 2018) or the role of CO2 as a key player in coffee heat tolerance (Martins et al 2016; Rodrigues et al 2016) probably because only very recently this information has become available for the coffee crop. These studies have produced newly unequivocal evidence that elevated CO2 stimulates photosynthesis and crop yield, and we argue that coffee is a highly suitable crop under elevated [CO2] more than we could expect as compared with the majority of other C3 crop species

Coffee photosynthesis is greatly constrained by diffusive factors

Physiological performance

Coffee bean quality

Findings

Concluding remarks