Why Borrow Trouble for Yourself and Lend It to Neighbors? Understanding the Historical Roots of Pakistan's Afghan Policy

Abstract

Despite the long-standing Pakistan-Afghanistan border dispute and Afghanistan's irredentist claims on Pakistani territory west of the Indus River, Pakistan's current Afghan policy is a continuation of its “long confrontation” with India. Given the hostile nature of Indo-Pakistani and Pakistani-Afghan relations, Pakistan views its Afghan border as its vulnerable “back door” and is desperate to counter an Indo-Afghan alliance. The Pakistan Army, the key foreign policy decision maker in Islamabad, remains determined to prevent itself from being outflanked by India. Thus Pakistani support for the Afghan Taliban is likely to continue unabated, because the Taliban is viewed as Pakistan's trump card to play against any pro-Indian Afghan government. Barring a radical rethink by the army, Afghanistan's Finlandization is likely the only viable long-term solution to the Afghan problem.