Abstract
AbstractThis paper investigates the determinants of the disparities in the levels of democracy in Africa. Taking the end of the Cold War as a quasi-natural experiment for African countries, we find a robust positive relationship between the share of the emigrant population in the 1970s–1980s and the outcome of democratic transitions in the countries of origin of emigrants. Additionally, the effect of emigration on democracy decreases according to the duration of the migrant population in the host countries: the longer the duration of the migrant population, the greater the impact on democracy, ceteris paribus. The supportive evidence demonstrates that a larger population of emigrants enabled citizens to develop an independent civil society. In contrast, a small emigrant population during autocratic rule did not allow such development. In this case, the incumbents retained their bargaining power and determined the agenda of the transitions; consequently, institutional changes were less likely to occur.
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