Who will control the electric vehicle market

Abstract

The second automobile revolution, the age of electrification and digitalisation, is on its way. It is a gradual transition and not a sudden break. However, millions of electric vehicles (EVs) are now being sold, and the EV market is becoming a mass market propelled by economies of scale. It is reflected in the drop in the cost of batteries which will bring the price of EVs on a par with the price of conventional vehicles in the coming decade. Nonetheless, two interrelated issues have been underestimated and will now decide who will play a dominant role and benefit the most from the EV market. The first is the relative scarcity of raw materials from which batteries are made. The second is that the primary EV market is China which gives its companies a strategic advantage for the supply of critical metals and the large-scale production of batteries. Our research analyses the fundamental role of natural resources for the control of the EV market and the response of governments to ensure access to them. We show the importance of industrial and diplomatic policies in a context of geostrategic rivalries of large powers.