Who will build new trade relations? Finding potential relations in international liquefied natural gas trade

Abstract

Liquefied natural gas (LNG) trade has contributed to de-regionalizing and integrating the total natural gas market with its advantage of flexibility in delivery. While because of this feature, the international trade of LNG is more changeable. Finding potential links in changeable international LNG trade can help the government quickly find a new partner when facing a sudden breakdown of trade relation or an urgent situation to diversify the trade partners. Moreover, the government could adjust its energy strategy in advance by estimating the potential trade relations of present partners. In this study, we find potential trade relations in international LNG trade by combining the trade motivation underlying in the network structure with rules explored from the LNG international trade. The findings are as follows: In the next five years, there is a very high possibility that India, Spain, Netherlands and Singapore will import LNG from USA, and there is a high possibility that Italy will import LNG from the USA. UK may export LNG to Japan and France is likely to export LNG to Rep of Korea. Suggestions about LNG trade according to the findings are offered to governments.