WHO WANTS TO BE A DICTATOR?

Abstract

(By Vyacheslav Polovinko. Novaya gazeta, Aug. 31, 2016, p. 6. Condensed text:) For three days, the world has been wondering whether Uzbek President Islam Karimov has died or pulled through following a brain hemorrhage. But regardless of the correct answer, it is apparent that the last remaining Soviet leaders are finally leaving the political stage. ... On Sunday, Aug. 28, the perennial president of Uzbekistan, Islam Karimov, was suddenly hospitalized with a stroke. Rumors about the 78-year-old Karimov’s ailments have circulated before, but official Tashkent has always denied them. Now, everything was strictly the opposite: government for the first time ever announced that the current head of state required a [medical] evaluation, and it broke the news (albeit dryly and without details?) on the central news TV channel.. . . ... Doctors gave Karimov five days to pull through, but already on Monday night, several independent sources stated that Karimov had died at 3:35 that afternoon. One of these sources was Daniil Kislov, editor in chief of Fergana.ru (virtually the only source of more or less reliable information on the current situation in Uzbekistan). It was also confirmed on the Dozhd [Rain] TV channel by Association for Human Rights in Central Asia president Nadezhda Atayeva, who cited her sources. Uzbek authorities denied through RIA Novosti and Interfax that the president had died, but they are in the clear minority: It is widely held that Karimov’s death will be announced after Sept. 1 [Uzbekistan’s Independence Day]. Granted, according to other reports, the holiday will be called off and information about the death concealed because there is a struggle for the throne. In the political life of Central Asia, there is a tradition of not speaking about the inevitable for as long as possible. ... A battle for the presidency really has begun, even if Karimov isn’t dead yet. Shavkat Mirziyayev, who has been serving as prime minister since 2003, looks like the obvious victor. Right now, there seems to be a successor figure who is supported by major outside players, including Russia: This is the prime minister of Uzbekistan. But I find it difficult to assess how stable [that figure] would be, said DW columnist and Central Asia expert Vitaly Volkov. Political analyst Arkady Dubnov adds that there is a more important factor: Mirziyayev has the backing of the head of Uzbekistan’s National Security Service, 72-year-old Rustam Inoyatov, and this gives Mirziyayev a substantial leg up in the successorship race. Moreover, Mirziyayev suits Moscow as a loyal promoter of Karimov’s causes and an amenable negotiating partner. In recent years, the Kremlin’s relations with Karimov have foundered, but with Mirziyayev, efforts could be made to return Uzbekistan to the Collective Security Treaty Organization and more. If Uzbekistan could be prodded into the Eurasian Economic Union, that would be a real cause for celebration, says Aidos Sary, a political analyst from Kazakhstan.. . . ... Inoyatov could become president himself, but the gray cardinal’s age and habits suggest that the National Security Service chief would prefer to stay in the shadows. But he could give his protege significant help: According to unofficial information, potential Mirziyayev rivals are already being arrested in Tashkent. In particular, there are rumors about the detention of 56-year-old Finance Minister Rustam Azimov, who is being called the No. 2 candidate. Officially, these [rumors] are, of course, denied, and experts in Uzbekistan have doubts about them. But if they are true, Azimov’s chances are far less: He is considered a more liberal candidate due to his ties to the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, and clearly no one in the Uzbek government is ready for fresh ideas. ... Karimov’s ailing condition has people on edge, not only in Uzbekistan, but also in neighboring countries. In particular, Karimov has been a hot topic in Kazakhstan the past three days. The Uzbek president was something of a guarantor that there would not be a steady stream of Islamic radicals flowing into Kazakhstan from its nearest neighbor in Central Asia, like the almost unchecked drug-trafficking taking place now. The fairly perceptible presence of ([Islamic State of Iraq and Sham] an organization banned in Russia - Ed.) in Uzbekistan, and the clans and opposing groups in military, security and law-enforcement agencies are clearly instability factors - especially given that they are associated with gray and black business in Afghanistan. Karimov kept the Afghan direction firmly in check; it is difficult to say what [the situation] will be like after [he’s gone], Vitaly Volkov from DW says. ... Other experts, while not excluding Islamic radicals as such, hint that Uzbekistan has other problems. ISIS would rush to claim responsibility for any potential incidents or even terrorist attacks, which naturally would do the Uzbek special services a big favor.