Who Is Winning in Energy Transition?

Abstract

We talk about “the energy transition” as if it were some type of unified, global event. Instead, numerous approaches to energy transitions are taking place in parallel, with all of the “players” moving at different paces, in different directions, and with different guiding philosophies. Which companies are best positioned to survive and thrive, and why? This article takes a look at what several top energy research and business intelligence firms are saying. What a Difference a Year Makes Prior to 2020—in fact, as recently as the 2014 bust that followed the shale boom—the oil and gas industry weathered downturns by “tightening their belts” and “doing more with less” in the form of cutting capital expenditures and costs, tapping credit lines, and improving operational efficiency. Adopting advanced digitalization and cognitive technologies as integral parts of the supply chain from 2015 to 2019 led to significant performance improvements as companies dealt with “shale shock.” Then, in 2020, a strange thing happened. Just as disruptive technologies like electric vehicles and solar photovoltaic and new batteries were gaining traction and decarbonization and environmental, social, and governance (ESG) issues were rising to the top of global social and policy agendas, COVID-19 left companies with almost nothing to squeeze from their supply chains, and budget cuts had a direct impact on operational performance and short-term operational plans. To stabilize their returns, many oil and gas companies revised and reshaped their portfolios and business strategies around decarbonization and alternative energy sources. The result: The investment in efforts toward effecting energy transition surpassed $500 billion for the first time in early 2021 ($501.3 billion, a 9% increase over 2019, according to BloombergNEF) despite the economic disruption caused by COVID-19. According to Wood Mackenzie, carbon emissions and carbon intensity are now key metrics in any project’s final investment decision. And, Rystad Energy said that greenhouse-gas emissions are declining faster than what is outlined in many conventional models regarded as aggressive scenarios. In Rystad’s model, electrification levels will reach 80% by 2050. A Look at the Playing Field: Energy Transition Pillars In a February 2021 webinar, Rystad discussed what leading exploration and production (E&P) companies are doing to keep up with the energy transition and stay investable in the rapidly changing market environment. The consulting firm researched the top 25 E&P companies based on their oil and gas production in 2020 and analyzed how they approach various market criteria in “three pillars of energy transition in the E&P sector” that the firm regards as key distinguishers and important indicators of potential success (Fig. 1). The research excludes national oil companies (NOCs) except for those with international activity (INOCs). Rystad says these 25 companies are responsible for almost 40% of global hydrocarbon production and the same share of global E&P investments and believes the trends within this peer group are representative on a global scale.