Who Is Afraid of Preelection Polls? How Perceptions of Polls Influence Support for Polling Regulations among Elites

Abstract

Opinion polls have become a highly prominent feature in today’s news coverage of political affairs, and especially so before major elections (Holtz-Bacha & Strömbäck, 2012). The growing importance of polls in the news media has triggered mainly two scholarly debates: One concerning pollster accuracy and the quality of poll coverage in the news; the other about the effect these polls have on the electorate. Among political elites, a third debate is perhaps equally important, and relates to the question whether legislators should regulate the use of preelection polls. Petersen (2012, p. 59) points to the rise in the number of countries where publication of results from preelection polls is banned. According to a recent World Association For Public Opinion Research (WAPOR) study among 85 countries across the globe, almost half have some sort of “blackout period” for preelection polls during which polling results may not be released to the public (Chung, 2012). In the past decade, 11 countries liberalized their restrictions, but more countries strengthened their restrictions. In Mexico, for instance, where restrictions had already been imposed, a total ban on publishing any poll results during national election campaigns was proposed (WAPOR, 2012).