Who Are California’s “Decline to State” Voters?

Abstract

DOI 10.1515/cjpp-2012-0024 Calif. J. Politics Policy 2013; 5(1): 47–66 Research Article R. Michael Alvarez and J. Andrew Sinclair* Who Are California’s “Decline to State” Voters? Abstract: California has a large, and growing, number of voters who decline to affiliate with a major political party. This study uses a large sample survey from the 2010 election cycle to ask: who are these “decline to state” voters? This article explores their positions on issues, their attitudes toward parties, their opinions on government, their political knowledge and involvement, their 2010 voting preferences, and their voting behavior in general. We find the data supports a nuanced view of California’s “DTS” voters – in some ways more like “independ- ents” and in other ways strikingly partisan. Keywords: California politics; independent voters; decline to state; DTS *Corresponding author: J. Andrew Sinclair, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA, USA, e-mail: jsinclair08@gmail.com R. Michael Alvarez, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA, USA 1 Introduction In June 2012, the unaffiliated voters of California had a new opportunity to influence politics through the “top-two” primary. These unaffiliated (or “non- partisan” or “decline to state”) voters are widely assumed to be “independents”, and under the new law, they could play a central role in selecting candidates. As politicians and pundits examine the results of this new system though, mis- understanding the unaffiliated voters will muddle the picture. In this article, we argue that these voters should not be treated as uniform group of political independents. Assumptions about the unaffiliated voters frame our expectations for the new primary, passed as Proposition 14 in 2010. The Los Angeles Times, in an endorsement of this Proposition, postulated, “It’s a route to more pragmatic officeholders and elections controlled more by voters than by political parties – which is why the Democratic and Republican parties both oppose it so