Whither Unified Korea? East, West or Center?

Abstract

Abstract : Since the end of the Korean War, the balance of power in Northeast Asia has been significantly shaped by an enduring Republic of Korea (ROK)-US alliance. Despite the constant threat of a resumption of hostilities between the two Koreas, the current structure maintains a status quo that assures the balance of power in Northeast Asia. However, if hostilities or a collapse of the Democratic Republic of North Korea (DPRK) lead to a unified Korea; its choice of alignment could disrupt the balance of power imposed on the region since 1953. A unified Korea s profound and strategic decision of alignment will not come easy and will not be black or white. It will however have the potential to shift the regional balance of power a decision influenced by Korean history, culture, nationalism and the interests of the regional stakeholders. A unified Korea has three broadly defined alignment options tilt West towards the United States and Japan, tilt East towards the People s Republic of China (PRC), or pursue neutrality/nonalignment, each with their own advantages, disadvantages, and nuanced variations. Given the range of strategic alignment options and its tumultuous history, culture and existing security dilemma, Korea will likely opt for neutrality/nonalignment as the best option to advance its national interests and promote peace and prosperity in Northeast Asia. Neutrality/nonalignment, although the most viable option, is not a forgone conclusion; how Korea unifies, what nations support it during unification, and the state of geostrategic environment could alter Korea s calculus and result in a different outcome. Given the strategic implications of a unified Korea s alignment, the United States should consider expanding its efforts to shape and influence the strategic environment towards a favorable outcome, encouraging Korea towards the West or at least a position of favorable neutrality.