WHITHER TRANSITION—DEVELOPMENT AND SECURITY IN THE FORMER SOVIET CENTRAL ASIA

Abstract

The article examines the political, economic and social context of security in Central Asia from a domestic, regional and international perspective. Its main question is seemingly obvious: where are the Central Asian Republics in transition coming from and where are they going to? A number of lessons and projections on future developments in the region's crisis potential can be inferred from the history of South Asia after 1947. The paper outlines the problems common to South and Central Asian countries, which are associated with nation-building and inherent in the process of transition from a colonial relationship to independence. These problems include the necessity to provide for peoples with different ethnic and religious allegiances to coexist securely within and beyond the present borders. In Central Asia perpetuated dependence on Russia combine with ethnic allegiances transcending borders of inter alia two nuclear powers with a geostrategic interest in Central Asia, Russia and China. In South Asia the same factors have already shown to be causes of instability and an over-reliance of military instruments in ascertaining nationhood and national security. A similar development has to be avoided in Central Asia. In the contemporary context Kazakstan and Pakistan have begun to undertake efforts to establish a regional regime for politico-economic co-operation. This indicates an awareness on the part of these two governments of the crisis potential in the region. On a more positive note, it also indicates that co-operation under a formal regime framework is seen as security and stability building. The paper ends with an outlook on possible linkages between regime and nation-building and on the feasibility of a regional security regime. © 1997 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.