Whither the Liberal International Order? Authority, Hierarchy, and Institutional Change

David A Lake

doi:10.1017/s0892679420000611

Abstract

AbstractThe liberal international order is being challenged today by populism and unilateralism. Though it has been resilient in the past, the current challenges from within the order are unprecedented. Without being too pessimistic, I expect the LIO will survive but retract to its original core states in North America, Europe, and Northeast Asia, shedding some of its universal pretensions. States that remain within the liberal order, in turn, will compete with an alternative Chinese-led international hierarchy built around all or part of the current Belt and Road Initiative countries. While international institutions can facilitate cooperation, they do not bridge this emerging divide sufficiently to forestall conflict and, in any event, will not be sufficiently robust to prevent a new cold war. As part of the roundtable “International Institutions and Peaceful Change,” this brief essay sketches this argument and concludes with some possible ways of moderating future conflicts.

Highlights

States that remain within the liberal order, in turn, will compete with an alternative Chinese-led international hierarchy built around all or part of the current Belt and Road Initiative countries
Whereas Europe sought to deepen international institutions, the United States did not attempt to institutionalize its role in the Middle East, though it has on occasion wrapped its aspirations for authority in ad hoc coalitions
Though international institutions quickly became an integral part of the liberal international order (LIO), they never played the same role in mitigating competition and promoting cooperation between the United States and Soviet Union

Summary

Introduction

The liberal international order (LIO) formed and led by the United States after has been increasingly challenged in recent years. The United Nations was the institution that came closest to realizing the universalism preached by liberals, but was effectively gutted by the Cold War competition between the veto-wielding superpowers. The competition between these two orders will be similar, though not identical, to the Cold War struggle between the United States and the Soviet Union.

Results

Conclusion