Whither the census? Continuity and change in census methodologies worldwide, 1985–2014

Abstract

Studies examining the use of alternative census models in specific countries or regions suggest that the traditional full enumeration census may be heading toward its ‘twilight.’ However the lack of a comparative and longitudinal overview makes it difficult to evaluate whether in fact the population census is in a state of global decline. As National Statistics Offices worldwide explore options for future census transformation, a more systematic study is both timely and methodologically important. We empirically examine census practices in all countries in the world (n = 241) over the last three decennial census rounds spanning the period 1985–2014. We find that the uptake of alternative approaches has been most pronounced in Europe where there is a history of maintaining population registers and broader public acceptance of using personal data for statistical purposes. Elsewhere in the world the move towards alternative census methodologies has been very limited. The stringent preconditions necessary to make a successful transition towards a register-based census, coupled with the options offered by e-census and other technologies, suggest the full enumeration census is likely to endure for the foreseeable future, although in a more modernized form.