Whither long-term Canada—U.S. natural gas trade? A view from the (modelling) trenches

Abstract

How will long term Canada-U.S. gas trade evolve? Because of recent expanded Canadian gas exports to the U.S., this question has received much industry attention and it has also been addressed in the ninth study of Stanford University's Energy Modeling Forum. Drawing upon experience gained from participating in that study, this paper provides a modelling perspective on charting the course of future North American gas trade. The principal conclusion is that, due to major uncertainties arising from several sources, decision makers must exercise much caution when basing their decisions or judgments on outcomes from long-term gas trade models.