Whither climate change post-Paris?

Roy Thompson

doi:10.1177/2053019616676607

Abstract

The Paris Climate Agreement has been welcomed by many as providing a remarkably strong basis for global action on anthropogenically mediated climate change, by underpinning a highly ambitious, very clever and forward-looking political process. On the other hand, the sum total of the fresh emission reductions pledged is very small. A new climate-economics model is explored to help focus on two key points remaining at issue post-Paris, namely where are we now and where are we headed? The output reinforces the unpalatable finding that in the absence of even stronger carbon-pricing policies, temperatures and sea-level will, this century, rise significantly beyond what are currently deemed to be ‘dangerous’ levels. Pigouvian taxes have long been championed by economists as providing a simple, down-to-earth corrective remedy for market failures, such as excessive carbon emissions. The Wilsonian modification, or ‘feebate’, provides an attractive modern variant that could easily be implemented post-Paris.

Highlights

Abatement costs, Anthropocene, climate change, climate sensitivity, damage function, discount rate, integrated assessment model, Pigouvian tax
The first, he suggests, is a statement about the future which can be summed up as follows “anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases will lead to significant global warming”. The second, he proposes, is an affirmation about what we can observe that is to say “human activities already have noticeably changed global climate”. In this short article I reflect on these two facets of Anthropogenic Climate Change within the context of the process of the adoption, signing and ratification of the Paris Climate Agreement
By making use of a straightforward energy-balance model and a strippeddown integrated assessment model, I focus on the two questions: where are we now? and where are we headed?