Whisper Forecasts of Quarterly Earnings per Share

Abstract

In this paper, we compare First Call analyst forecasts to unofficial forecasts of quarterly earnings per share commonly referred to as whisper forecasts. Our analysis yields the following results. First, we find that whispers are, on average, more accurate than First Call forecasts and are better proxies for market expectations of earnings than are First Call forecasts, consistent with the claim in the professional press that whispers are increasingly becoming the true market expectation of earnings. Second, we show that trading strategies based on the relationship between whisper and First Call forecasts earn abnormal returns. Our results, when considered collectively, suggest that whispers contain information not contained in First Call analyst forecasts and that they appear to be widely enough disseminated so that at least part of this information is incorporated in stock prices prior to the earnings release. Formally titled Whispers and Shouts: Forecasts of Quarterly Earnings Per Share