Which coal-fired power units in China should be prioritized for decommissioning?

Abstract

China's total installed coal power capacity is larger than that of all other countries combined. However, for China to attain its objectives of carbon peak in 2030 and carbon neutrality in 2060, a considerable number of these units will have to be phased out. Therefore, it is crucial to identify which coal-fired power units should be prioritized for decommissioning. This study constructs a stacking evaluation model comprising multiple sub-models, based on the power resource endowment, power generation efficiency, and social responsibility. This model is employed to assess each existing coal-fired power unit in China, with the objective of determining which units should be prioritized for retirement. Additionally, the impact on power supply and heating systems in various Chinese provinces is assessed based on these decommissioning scenarios. The results show that: ① Compared to a single model, the stacking evaluation model developed in this study exhibits higher accuracy and robustness. ② China should prioritize the phasing out of small, inefficient coal-fired power units that do not supply heat and are located in regions with a higher proportion of thermal power generation. Approximately 23.1 % (679 units) of coal-fired power units will need to be retired by 2030. ③ The retirement of outdated coal-fired power units will lead to a more efficient, modern, and healthier Chinese power system. ④ The closure of 679 outdated coal-fired units will not result in a shortage of electricity but will substantially affect urban heating. Northern provinces reliant on district heating anticipate a loss of 516.42 million GJ/year in heating capacity.