Abstract
This study analyzed the long-term alterations in runoff regime, seasonality and variability in headwater montane basins in Central Europe in response to the manifestations of climate change. We tested the common hypotheses on climate change effects on surface runoff dynamics in the Central Europe region, assuming that (i) recent climate warming will result in shifts in the seasonality of runoff, (ii) the runoff balance will remain without significant changes and (iii) that higher variability in runoff can be expected. The analyses were done on eight montane catchments in four mid-latitude mountain ranges in Central Europe, based on the uninterrupted time series of daily discharge observations from 1952 to 2018. We used 33 indicators of hydrologic alteration (IHA), 34 indicators of environmental flow components, the baseflow index, the calculation of surplus and deficit volumes and the frequency of peak and low flows. Homogeneity testing using Buishand, Pettitt and SNHT tests was applied to test the response of the hydrological alteration indicators to climate warming. We have proved the significant shifts in runoff seasonality, coinciding with the timing of the air temperature rise, marked by earlier snowmelt, followed by a decline in spring flows and a prolonged period of low flows. There was detected a rise in the baseflow index across the mountain ranges. Unlike the common hypotheses, the expected rise of runoff variability and frequency of peak flows was not demonstrated. However, we have identified a significant change of the flood hydrographs, tending to steeper shape with shorter recessing limbs as a sign of rising inner dynamics of flood events in montane catchments.
Highlights
The growing severity of floods and droughts in Europe, which became a major source of damage and societal risk over the past two decades [1], significantly stimulated research in the fields of changes in long-term trends of hydrological regimes [2] and recent variability in hydrological extremes and their regional aspects
The elevated inner dynamics and variability in the runoff in montane catchments in the Sumava region were further demonstrated at different spatial scales [26,27]. Based on these in our study, we selected a set of basins in four montane ranges in Central Europe to test the generally accepted hypotheses, assuming that (a) recent climate warming results in shifts in the seasonality of runoff distribution, while (b) the indicators of runoff balance will remain without significant changes and that (c) higher variability in the runoff, displayed by a higher frequency of floods and droughts, can be expected
The methods used for analysis comprised a mix of hydrological analysis tools and statistical techniques used for calculation of hydrological alteration parameters and detection of their changes in long time series of daily discharge observations
Summary
The growing severity of floods and droughts in Europe, which became a major source of damage and societal risk over the past two decades [1], significantly stimulated research in the fields of changes in long-term trends of hydrological regimes [2] and recent variability in hydrological extremes and their regional aspects. Particular attention is paid to the potential drivers of changes, with a special focus on climate change [3,4,5] and land use changes [6,7]. A better understanding of the trends of hydrological extremes, their spatial distribution and drivers are sought as a key for designing efficient potential adaptation measures [8]. Central Europe represents a transient region in terms of climate gradients, features highly variable physiography and a significant human impact.
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