Where there’s smoke there’s fire: the relationship between perceived and objective wildfire smoke risk

Abstract

ABSTRACT To what extent do people’s perceptions of the risk posed by wildfire smoke correspond with objective risk? To answer this question, we draw upon a series of instruments from the University of Oklahoma’s 2022 Wildfire and Risk Communication survey to assess respondents’ perceptions of wildfire smoke’s prevalence and the risk it poses to themselves and their families. We then compare these perceptions to an objective measure of each respondent’s wildfire smoke exposure in the preceding year. We conclude by exploring whether respondents actively seeking out information about wildfire smoke are more likely to have accurate perceptions of its prevalence and risk. We find that respondents tend to be more aware of wildfire smoke when they are exposed to high concentrations but less aware when they are exposed to moderate concentrations, which suggests a desensitising effect from moderate smoke exposure. Many respondents who are aware that smoke is prevalent where they live also do not view smoke exposure as concerning, which implies low awareness of smoke exposure's health consequences. Risk awareness is especially low among older respondents. Finally, we find that actively seeking out information affects respondents' perceptions of smoke's risk more than its prevalence.