Where the Baltic States Confirm and Extend Predictions of an Enlarged Viner-Model

Abstract

We empirically assess trade creation and diversion effects experienced by Baltic countries (2001–2020). To this purpose, we rely on the Viner model and its modifications to account for the access to the EU and for the monetary integration effects of the EURO adoption. We follow a three-steps-procedure (macro balance view, trend breaking view, and competitiveness view) which enables us to make a guess about the validation of the (expanded) Viner model. We show how the access to the EU and the adoption of the EURO by the Baltic countries redistributes shares of the respective import market and, hence, of incomes.