Where is the carbon going? - A multi-model comparison

Abstract

<p>Net terrestrial carbon uptake is primarily driven by increases in net primary productivity (NPP) and/or the residence time of carbon in vegetation and soil. As such, it is of critical importance to accurately quantify spatio-temporal variation in both terms and determine their drivers. Both NPP and residence times are modulated by changing environmental conditions, including climate change and variability, atmospheric CO<sub>2</sub>, and Land Use and Land Cover Changes (LULCC). For the historical period, 1901-2019, outputs from a suite of Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs) from the TRENDY consortium, driven with observed changes in climate, CO<sub>2</sub>, and LULCC are analysed. Changes in global and regional carbon fluxes, stocks, and residence times are quantified, as well as an attribution to the underlying drivers. We find that over the historical period the majority of models simulate an increase in NPP, predominantly driven by enhanced atmospheric CO<sub>2</sub> concentrations. This generally leads to increased carbon storage in both vegetation and soils, however there is no agreement across models on the partitioning between vegetation and soils. This increased storage also acts to reduce soil carbon residence times due to a relative increase in carbon allocated in the faster decomposing soil pools. LULCC over this period has acted to reduce carbon inputs to the system and reduce vegetation carbon residence times due to conversion of forests to shorter vegetation. We find there is a large variation in simulated global and regional fluxes, stocks, and residence times in resonse to changes in climate, implying there are considerable uncertainties in current DGVMs. We therefore use long-term global observations of productivity and biomass change to constrain model estimates and provide insight into a process attribution for biospheric change as well as highlighting areas for future model improvement.</p>