Where is all the gold?

Abstract

The Witwatersrand Basin contains by far the most gold ever found, and has hosted mining from its discovery in 1886 to the present. For many years, South Africa was the world's largest producer of gold, nearly all of which came from the Witwatersrand. Since 2000, South Africa has fallen back several positions because of declining gold output. There are many complex and varied reasons for this; however, declining gold resources in the Witwatersrand Basin are not one of them. As far as the author knows, there are no qualified estimates in the literature of gold remaining in the Witwatersrand Basin. This paper collects mining data from several sources and then, using elementary gold accounting and error analysis, attempts to estimate the amount of gold remaining in the Witwatersrand Basin. It includes gold underground in existing and defunct mines, in evaluated ore resources, and dumps. Compiled data from 1887 to 2019 shows that 50 200 t of gold were produced by Witwatersrand mines, while it is estimated that a further 48 100 t remain underground, both within and outside of mine leases, a further 1 600 t on the surface in tailings, and an unknown amount in rock dumps. Nearly all of this gold will remain inaccessible with current mining methods, and major technical developments in mining will be necessary before any of the gold can be categorized as a code-compliant resource or reserve. To win this prize, the mining industry will have to rethink its approach to mining, both in old mining leases and in the unexploited ground. It will also have to find effective means of preventing gold theft and informal mining, which are on the rise.