Abstract
What happens when anti-establishment political actors gain strength, enter institutions, and even become the new establishment? To what extent are their electoral profiles and the demands behind them normalised by the system? This article uses ITANES surveys to investigate voters’ reactions to the different paths taken by the three main protagonists of the 2016-2020 Italian populist wave: the M5S, the Lega, and FDI. In particular, it uses panel data to study the evolution of populist attitudes and protest drivers, as well as their connection with electoral flows and parties’ strategic choices. The most striking change concerns the redefinition of the political outlook of 5-star voters, who have significantly reduced their populist stances. However, the transformation of the M5S into a government party produced significant outflows of voters who already in 2016 expressed greater resentment towards political elites. These dynamics have largely favoured parties of the populist right – the Lega and then especially FDI – which have preserved or even reinforced their (electoral) profile as anti-establishment parties.
Highlights
What happens when anti-establishment political actors gain strength, enter institutions, and even become the new establishment? To what extent are their electoral profiles and the demands behind them normalised by the system? The rise of challenger parties in many established democracies has renewed interest in such questions in recent years
This allowed for the creation of three typologies that – for each of the three challenger parties – identify four groups: Loyal party voters, Outgoing party voters, Incoming party voters, and Other voters
Given the political and electoral trajectories of the three challenger parties analysed in this article, it will be interesting to understand how these different routes, institutional roles, and related political communication contents reflected on the orientations of their electoral bases and of the Italian public opinion at large
Summary
The rise of challenger (populist) parties in many established democracies has renewed interest in such questions in recent years These parties have been able to tap into a widespread democratic malaise which translates into protest voting, challenges mainstream parties, and often rewrites the patterns of party competition. The longitudinal research design makes it possible to study the evolution of the profiles of these parties’ electorates concerning the analysed dimensions, linking them to electoral flows in a highly volatile electoral market This approach enables testing whether the access to government positions was accompanied by a (partial) mitigation of protest elements in the political outlook of challenger parties’ electorates, or whether it was matched, on the contrary, by an outflow of ‘critical voters’ who found new challengers ready to channel their resentment. The final section summarises the main findings and discusses the main clues for understanding the rapid evolution of the Italian political system
Sign-in/Register to view highlights & summary Sign-in/Register to access full text options 
Free) 
Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a call
