Where does Right-Wing Populism Succeed Sub-Nationally? Explaining Regional Variation within France

Abstract

AbstractWhile many scholars have studied how right-wing populist parties (RWPP) have recently increased their vote shares in national elections in many countries, fewer studies have assessed why some sub-national regions favor RWPP more than others. Addressing this gap in the literature, we analyze regional variation in voter support for one of Europe’s most successful RWPP, the Front National (FN) Party of France which recently made it to the second round of France’s 2017 presidential elections. Our research design examines electoral results across French regions between 1992 and 2017 through the lens of four case studies analyzing regions where the FN has been consistently popular, gained in popularity, declined in popularity, and been consistently unpopular. Comparing these diverse regional cases, our study concludes that regional unemployment, urban support, and to a lesser degree past voting behavior are significant demand-side factors behind regional voting for right wing populism.