Where Did All the Protesters Go?

Abstract

Among most intriguing-and least studied-paradoxes to have emerged in growing literature on transitions to democracy are those relating to significance of mobilization in recent transition processes. As O'Donnell and Schmitter (1986) point out, mass mobilizations (what they refer to as resurrection of civil society and subsequent popular upsurge) have played the crucial role of pushing transition further than it would otherwise have gone (p. 56), providing possibility for more complete transitions to political democracy. This appears to be true despite central role of sectors' and their representatives (the political left, workers' and peasants' organizations, and so on) in generating political instability that often ushered in authoritarian regimes in first place (O'Donnell, 1973; Cardoso and Faletto, 1979; Collier, 1979). These mobilizations are culmination of a process that actually begins with imposition of authoritarian rule and represents a shift in locus of political activity to nonparty arenas where it is more difficult to repress. New political experiences and new forms of organization and participation emerge as a result of repression that targets political parties, political elites, and leadership of most collective actors, particularly organized labor. Much of this alternative activity is concentrated among urban poor, who have shouldered much of burden of socioeconomic and political policies adopted by authoritarian regimes throughout region. Similarly, political parties not tied to authoritarian regime generally experience a weakening of their links to civil society, and it is often only in wake of