Where could Centris nigrescens (Hymenoptera: Apidae) go under climate change?

Abstract

Climate change (CC) is an important driver affecting pollination and pollinators. This paper aims to provide an updated potential distribution for Centris nigrescens Lepeletier, 1841, and infer CC effects upon it. We used ten modeling methods to infer the potential distribution of C. nigrescens. We measured the extent of species’ suitable area (SSA) that is and maybe within protected areas and biogeographical provinces in both current and future scenarios. C. nigrescens seems to be restricted to the Tropical Region in the Americas. Geographical barriers affecting the species’ distribution are the Andean Cordillera and the Caribbean Sea. We recorded the species for the first time in Panama. In the future, SSA is expected to increase about 36% but with a partial reduction in both Amazon forest and South American savannas. Also, the SSA’ within protected areas would decrease by 1.3%. Considering the species’ range shifts under CC, it will be important to explore if the fragmentation of the suitable areas of the species’ range pattern in both Amazon forest and South American savannas will be the same as for other oil-collecting bees. It will also be essential to explore possible consequences on oil-producing plants' pollination in those areas.