When will electrolytic hydrogen become competitive?

Abstract

The potential role of electrolytic hydrogen in Canada is assessed for the period 1980–2025 for large-scale uses only. For such uses, the hydrogen will be derived from natural gas, coal or electrolysis of water in Canada during the period of interest. Cost estimates of electrolytic hydrogen are obtained from a parametric equation. Values for Canada's unique unipolar water electrolysis technologies are compared with those for bipolar electrolysers. Both by-products of electrolytic hydrogen production, namely heavy water and oxygen, are evaluated. Cost projections for hydrogen derived from natural gas and coal, and for electrolytic hydrogen are based on simple but realistic assumptions. All cost data are given in constant 1980 Canadian dollars. Electrolytic hydrogen, based on non-fossil primary energy sources, is also considered as another “liquid fuel option” for Canada along with the alcohols. The market potential for hydrogen in general is assessed based on a reference and a higher use scenario for both the traditional and potential uses of hydrogen. From cost estimates and market assessments the potential demand for electrolytic hydrogen is estimated for the period in question. Results show that the market potential for electrolytic hydrogen will be large by the year 2025.