When will be the resumption of work in Wuhan and its surrounding areas during COVID-19 epidemic? A data-driven network modeling analysis

Abstract

Based on the report of epidemic data sets for Hubei province and mainland China,the big data from Baidu population migration trends and distributions,we formulated the COVID-19 transmission model on complex networks for Wuhan city and the 15 surrounding cities with severe epidemics, and analyzed the possible times for resumption of work in Wuhan and its surrounding areas and the impact of resumption of work on the risk of a secondary outbreak. Firstly, we estimated the actual cumulative number of cases in Wuhan on January 23rd on the basis of the cumulative number of reported cases in other 15 cities, and obtained the control reproduction numbers for the 16 major cities in Hubei province in different periods. Our research results revealed that the early transmission risk in these areas is high and the current transmission risk is low (due to the control reproduction numbers being less than 1). By simulating the whole network model on the flow network structure and flow volume in the same period of last year, we investigated the impact of the resumption of work on February 17, February 24 and March 2 on disease infection for each city. Main conclusion showed that with strong prevention measures and self-protection the second outbreak will not be caused during a period by the resumption of work on March 2, 2020.